For those of us who have worked in or engaged in diplomacy for the region it has been a tense and frustrating year for the Middle East. It certainly has not been the best year overall for Middle East airlines. Tourism to Egypt isn't exactly making a come back. With much of the "Arab Spring" turning into an Arab "Time of Troubles" and as we enter the Christmas Season this year and approach the New Year of 2013 the skies of the Star of Bethlehem and over the lands of the Children of Abraham...where Jesus was born and lived, the Prophet Mohammad recited and preached and the City of David and Solomon, are all, as they have been for decades the center of strife. Syria is in the midst of a tragic Civil War; Israel is under siege; Shia and Sunni are at odds; the President of Egypt is being called a New Pharaoh and Iran is seeking a nuclear arsenal. However, even with Damascus' Airport all but closed, and crowds demonstrating in Tahrir Square there are bright spots on the Arabian Peninsula - prosperous and growing airlines and prosperous and thriving cities.
Etihad, Emirates and Qatar Airways, to name the main ones, are now contenders. (I hope to see comments from executives from airlines such as Oman Air, Saudi, Jazzera etc. to remember them!) They are strategically located with their hubs in Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai on the Arabian Peninsula and central to connections to and from Europe, Central Asia, Africa, South America and the Far East and Australia. The cities and countries they fly from and are based in are almost literally oases of peace and commerce. As in real estate, these airlines are doing well because of the location, location, location of their bases. Their networks can funnel passengers from all over Europe and the Mediterranean and Africa beyond the Gulf Region eastward and vice versa. (On a recent trip to South America I was amazed to see throngs of Argentine passengers boarding an Emirates flight to Sao Paulo and beyond.) Generally, these airlines and their countries are safe - and secure. (Emirates is even a leader in Aviation Security training.)
This, however, does not mean that those charged with the security of air transport in the region can be complacent. One thing is certain - geography is not a static factor. The GCC states and their airlines as now being in the major league crossroads of air commerce, much as Europe became in the 1960's and 70's and 80's face a wider spectrum of challenges. In addition to the dangerous factions lurking on the periphery of the Arabian Peninsula, sectarian strife, the Israeli-Palestinian situation, rumblings in Central Asia, Aviation Security (AVSEC) professionals concerned with the area, whether they are in Doha, Riyadh, Chicago, Islamabad, Moscow, Delhi, Canberra or Frankfurt now have to be very concerned about cybersecurity, cybercrime and cyberterrorism based in Nigeria or Russia or New York. I won't speculate on the cyber horrors that integrated Safety Management Systems (SMS) and Security Management Systems (SeMS) will have to deal with in the area of flight operations for fear of giving the bad guys food for thought.
One thing is for sure, 2013 will continue to be full of challenges. AVSEC professionals based in the region have hopefully considered the effect of geopolitical strife on aviation prosperity in their region and hopefully have crisis management and recovery plans in place integrated with their national military and civil defense contingencies. Instead of Icelandic volcanoes those interested in "macro" AVSEC in the region need to think about conflict and missiles in the Straits of Hormuz. At the micro level they need to be concerned with the same passenger facilitation issues that our United States TSA does. God bless and keep those men and women of good will and all faiths and nationalities who are doing their best to keep our skies and travels safe whether it is for Christian pilgrims visiting the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem; Catholics the Vatican or Fatima, Moslem hajis making the Haj to Mecca, or Haddasah Ladies from Great Neck visiting Israel.
According to The Economist magazine, "Since 1998, the GCC’s real GDP has expanded by an annual average of 5.2% and by a cumulative total of 65%. Meanwhile, the population has risen from just over 28m in 1998 to an estimated 39m in 2008.
ReplyDeleteThe recent boom has focused world attention on the GCC economies—not only as exporters of oil and gas, but as investment destinations with major infrastructure projects, booming tourism and financial services sectors. As U.S. economic growth has slowed, GCC investors have begun to diversify their assets more widely, making investments in Asia, Africa and within the Gulf region itself. Industrialising economies in Asia are intensifying their trade links with the Gulf and some of the world’s poorest countries have become increasingly dependent on remittances from the millions of foreign workers transforming the skylines of Gulf cities."
Moreover, the GCC states are concentrating on moving ahead with monetary union and greater political integration. Sage longterm planning by the region's leaders has also yielded an increasingly diverse economy less dependent on oil exports. GCC capital investments are gaining a farther reach as well -- into economically booming Africa and Asia, and into Central Asia.
What follows from such economic growth and expansiveness is greater transportation reach, specifically, shipping and aviation. Mr. Carolla has aptly captured in his post this key point, accurately pointing out the security risks which accompany the growing commercial opportunities. This is an analytical and business opportunity crux that warrants further elucidation by the writer.