Carnival Takes Steps

http://www.marinelog.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3911:carnival-rolls-out-700-million-fleet-upgrade-plan&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=195

In an effort to recover its reputation Carnival attempts to bolster safety and reliability. Will it work?  Training, training and more training is key!

Foreign Exchange News: Should You Invest in Russia?

http://www.forexnews.com/blog/2013/03/14/investing-in-russia/

     This link provides an interesting description of the investment climate in Russia.  Of course Russia is one of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and has always been an agricultural (even without Ukraine) and natural resource powerhouse.  There are, however, certain dangers such as corruption (that also exists in other BRICs countries.)  
     Those investors actually thinking of investing in such tangible projects and activities in Russia such as energy, railroads, aviation, tourist infrastructure will need the services of infrastructure security and international affairs experts such as those of us at Pierce Pugliese and Carolla Air Analytics, LLC (www.aerorailsecure.com) with expertise in Russian geography, history, government, security services and dealing with the Russian (and other former Soviet such as Moldovan, Uzbek, and Ukrainian) bureaucracies to help them plan for the future in Russia.



Violence Against Swiss Tourists: Précautions de Sécurité Pendant à Vélo et Camping à l'Etranger

http://www.tdg.ch/monde/faits-divers/proces-suissesse-violee-inde-debute/story/13242161

     Violence Against Swiss Tourists: Précautions de Sécurité Pendant à Vélo et Camping à l'Etranger  (Safety Precautions While Bicycling and Camping Abroad.) This article from Tribune de Geneve describes the trial of a gang in India that raped a Swiss tourist and also assaulted her husband, robbing them both.  They were bicycling in India and camping under a tent.  This incident underscores the need to travel safe and smart, knowing the threats and risks of foreign countries, not that we don't have threats in the US.  Our firm Pierce, Pugliese and Carolla Air Analytics, LLC often is in a position to help you, your company or your travel agent with threat assessments as you prepare to travel,take shore excursions - or make investments or seek to evaluate threats to infrastructure abroad.  Although we cannot assure your safety and security, and can't be liable for any misfortunes we can, however, using our comprehensive international security expertise, augment such sources as the US State Department advisories and present to you threats that might not readily be apparent.  Such advice as being especially vigilant against pick-pockets on trains and in stations in Poland can help you protect your wallet and your person. 

American-US Airways Merger: Uncertain Course for Charlotte

      As a long time airline and transportation analyst I have some concerns regarding the US Airways - American Airlines merger and how it might affect Charlotte.  Although I reside and work about 400 miles north of Charlotte next to Washington's Dulles International Airport I advise and work with Edna Chirico, a consultant in Charlotte and have a keen interest in Charlotte's economy and Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT).  Under the long time stewardship of almost legendary and extremely capable Jerry Orr CLT has truly made North Carolina "first in flight." This post is an update of an assessment that I provided some days ago.

           The merger of US Airways and American Airlines will have a major effect on the economic fortunes of the Charlotte, North Carolina Airport.  Snobs from elsewhere in the US sometimes refer to Charlotte as “Mayberry with an Airport.”  (Mayberry being the rural North Carolina town of an Andy Griffith Show and Mayberry RFD television comedy series of the 1960’s.)  Charlotte, with its financial and business presence with several Fortune 500 firms located there, including several such as Chiquita Brands with international operations and equities isn’t exactly Mayberry.  Notably, there are 194 German-owned firms in the Charlotte area including 59 U.S. headquarters; making Germany the most largely represented foreign country in the region. Charlotte Douglas Airport (CLT) is the sixth largest airport in the United States when it comes to flight operations, but about 90 per cent of passenger traffic is US Airways hub traffic connecting through CLT and does not represent locally generated travel.  CLT is home to over 15,000 direct airport jobs.   The big variable in this merger is that Charlotte does not generate nearly as much originating traffic as other major US Airways and American hubs such as Miami, Chicago, JFK New York, and Philadelphia do. 

            What will happen to CLT now that US Airways takes over American?   A friend of mine who is a noted airline economist and frequently quoted in the mainstream aviation professional press assures me that CLT will remain a hub.  It is well-placed for regional connections with long distance flights.  However, for reasons outlined below some of its international significance might diminish. 

             However an excellent April 9, 2012 article by Ely Portillo in the Charlotte Observer  quoted Aviation analyst Henry Harteveldt of Cambridge, Mass.-based Atmosphere Research Group, as stating it’s risky to invest in more capacity with the future of the airport’s No. 1 carrier up in the air. “Charlotte’s future is so heavily tied to US Airways’ status as an independent airline, and right now there is a lot of uncertainty,” he said. “There really is a risk.”   (Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/04/09/3158982/airport-bets-a-billion-on-future.html#storylink=cpy  )   According to the same Observer article respected and veteran CLT Airport Director Jerry Orr said at the time “he’s not concerned about the possibility of a US Airways merger. He said there always will be room in the Southeast for a hub besides Atlanta, and Charlotte Douglas can be that hub as long as it is well-run and stays low-cost for airlines. That might be wishful thinking.  US Airways CEO Doug Parker [said] the airline remains committed to a Charlotte hub, even in the event of a merger. “I suspect in any sort of individual scenario that involves US Airways or any other airline in the future, that Charlotte will be a hub airport,” he told the Observer.”  If past actions on the part of American, US Airways and Delta are any indicator such talk is cheap when you consider their past history. The citizens of Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Cincinnati can tell the sad tales of woe.   Since deregulation in the 1970’s the airline oligopoly that has evolved or devolved in the United States has been interested only in market share, dividends and cost-cutting.  They are no longer effectively regulated as a public utility.  According to MSN News: “In the shakeout of American's merger with US Airways, experts believe American's hubs in Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, New York, Los Angeles and Miami are likely to emerge as winners, if only because those markets can support a large amount of traffic on their own. That leaves US Airways' facilities in Philadelphia, Phoenix and, especially, Charlotte, N.C., most at risk.”       http://news.msn.com/us/airline-merger-could-squeeze-some-hub-airports                      

          Other communities in the United States have been shortchanged and hurt by the consolidation and formation of oligopolies in the airline industry in the advanced throes of deregulation.   (Note: I am neither a fan of deregulation nor consolidation of the US Airline Industry and believe those factors have adversely affected customer service, the economics of aviation, jobs and professionalism and the availability of decent air transport to many communities.)   I would respectfully suggest those who care about and serve Charlotte to not be sanguine or Pollyannaish and to have a “Plan B” regarding the status of US Airways’ hub at CLT as this merger evolves.   Here, again according to the Charlotte Observer is what happened elsewhere in the US when airlines “consolidated:”

·              Pittsburgh International Airport, a former US Airways hub, was stuck with a new, $1 billion terminal after US Airways cut hundreds of flights there. Airport officials have said they expect to be paying back debt for the expansion until 2018. That, in turn, has kept its operating costs high.

·              Lambert-St. Louis International Airport started on a $1 billion expansion plan in 2001, the same year American Airlines bought bankrupt TWA, which had dominated the airport. Despite pledges to keep St. Louis as a hub, American cut hundreds of flights there and soon discontinued the hub, costing St. Louis direct service to many destinations.  I am very familiar with that disaster for St. Louis and consumers.  I used to fly between Washington Dulles on a comfortable MD-80 on TWA and for a bit after the hostile takeover on American.  Soon you could only fly on United or American Eagle subcontracted “regional carriers” in cramped small commuter jets. 

·             Closer to home at Raleigh  when American Airlines closed its hub in 1995 it was by far the airport's biggest tenant, at one point flying 73 percent of its passengers and offering about 200 daily departures.   Raleigh’s airport managed to attract Southwest Airlines and other carriers, but never regained major hub status.

           There are some salient geographic, operational and even historic airline considerations we need to consider now that US Airways has swallowed American: 

            First the good news - there is opportunity in chaos:  During this merger it will take months if not years to rationalize American and US Airways respective route structures.  Charlotte City, the Airport or somebody working for and with them should be studying those now and thinking of them now.  The city and local business needs to be preparing a case as to why Charlotte Douglas should remain a hub.

             Second, consider US Airways history: For Charlotte, there is one important word regarding the history of US Airways: Piedmont, the iconic North Carolina-based local service carrier of the 1950’s through the 1980’s.  US Airways has a family tree of many former local service carriers such as Allegheny (which served mainly Pennsylvania and adjacent states) which merged in 1967 with Indianapolis-based Lake Central Airlines then in 1971 with Upstate New York and New England’s Mohawk, in 1987 the West Coast’s PSA; and in 1987 with Piedmont (a marriage Jerry Orr is quite familiar with).   Then, in 2005 America West of Phoenix bought out and merged with US Air and became US Airways.  The thing to consider is that US Airways is a hodge-podge of a multitude of local service carriers that has taken decades to rationalize.   Charlotte, as a former Piedmont hub might “go back to the future” and serve as a smaller American (US Airways + American, that is) hub for the Southeast utilizing for the most part “regional airlines” subcontracted aircraft in American livery.   A review of flights out of Charlotte show that many with a US Airways flight number and painted in US Airways colors are not “real” US Airways flights but rather regional airlines contracted to US Airways.  The opportunity in this chaos is that many passengers hate transiting through Atlanta, JFK and especially Miami.  But geography and the economics of flying might offset any concerns regarding convenience.   Has customer convenience and service been a salient factor in air travel in the United States in recent years?

            Third, and most ominously we should consider operational geography.  This US Airways acquisition of American US Airways would gain three important hubs at New York’s JFK, Philadelphia and at Miami that are closer and less costly for fuel to Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean respectively than Charlotte.  When we look at an airline route map a Mercator Projection is misleading as flights from Asia, Europe and the Middle East don’t come from the east over the Atlantic over Kitty Hawk, but follow a Polar Great Circle.  In some circumstances using Charlotte as a hub could cost a lot more in expensive fuel.  It also could be redundant.         Fourth, consider the important German market.  US Airways is a member of the Star Alliance, but not the Star Alliance linchpin that United is.  American is the US bulwark of the Oneworld Alliance, and the new carrier would probably affiliate that way.  That raises questions on Lufthansa’s flight from Munich to Charlotte if there are no Star Alliance regional connections to connect with in Charlotte – shifting connections to United at the closer to Europe Dulles Airport (IAD) hub in Northern Virginia.

            Fifth, consider Latin America, Chiquita and Brazil. Will 700 Chiquita staff in Charlotte justify non-stops daily from the Caribbean and South America rather than using the myriad of current American flights into their fortress Miami?  No need for direct flights from CLT to Sao Paulo or Rio or Buenos Aires as passengers already arriving in Miami on American or their Oneworld ally and code share partner LAN would be funneled to Charlotte – at less cost to the new airline through Miami.  Unfortunately Miami’s role as “the Capital of Latin America” and cultural and immigration heritage links mitigate against a shift in many American flights to Charlotte especially as it would cost more in fuel costs.  Then again, as mentioned above, the opportunity in this chaos is that many passengers hate transiting through Miami with its awful Immigration and Customs lines, and perhaps the Latin American Chamber of Commerce in Charlotte can play a role in influencing future US Airways decisions.

            Finally there is the fact that Charlotte generates relatively little traffic to justify the economics of being a hub. As noted by MSN News, Adie Tomer, an associate fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that with 1.8 million people, the city just isn't big enough. "There's a lot of advantages to Charlotte, but they don't have the local base to fall back on, so they have to constantly incentivize the airline itself to keep flying through there," he said. "They just really have a connectivity that vastly outranks their metropolitan economic standing."

            What about a Plan B?   A not so obvious plan would be to start suggesting to the regional airlines flying smaller aircraft out of Charlotte that they could fill the gap left by a US Airways, soon to be American downgrade of CLT’s status.  They would be left in a lurch by such a move.  However, one should note that the jobs for those airlines are much lower paying – in some cases barely above minimum wage even for pilots and the volume of flights would not generate nearly as much economic activity and associated jobs that the current situation does.

            In short, Charlotte remaining a US Airways - American Airlines hub in its current state is not a done deal and there are serious factors suggesting it might not.  There will be an uncertain course for the Charlotte Airport and its boosters (which I regard myself) to navigate in coming months.  We have a lot of work ahead of us.

http://news.msn.com/us/airline-merger-could-squeeze-some-hub-airports

Yuletide Secure and Safe Flying in the USA

      As you wait in line at crowded US airports remember the reason you are getting screened by the TSA.  Evil people try to hijack and blow up airliners, and the bad guys like to try their attempts around Christmas and New Year.  Think of Pan Am Flight 103 and the notorious "Underwear Bomber."   Those TSA screeners are working under great pressure as screening is no easy task.

       You may wonder and be frustrated  by how many children, grandmothers, invalids and holiday pies are subjected to pat-downs or frisking.  "What jerks, Grandma can't be a terrorist!"  Actually, Grandmas could be an unknowing dupe for a terrorist plot; and many terrorist groups gladly use children.  There was one case in on April 17, 1986 when a Palestinian terrorist Nezar Hindawi packed a bomb into the carry-on bag of his pregnant Irish fiance, Anne Mary Murphy. The bomb was found by a very alert El Al security agent at London Heathrow.

        Then again, even supposedly knowledgeable and skilled journalists will carry on and incite rants on travel blogs and the like about the TSA infringing on rights against unreasonable searches.  Those types are being irresponsible.  Whether they are searched by government personnel or by airline personnel a host of US laws, international conventions, ICAO standards and airline security management systems - not to mention common sense - require that reasonable measures be taken to keep weapons and explosives off of aircraft.  That is why US courts have consistently upheld that such searches - applied to everybody - are "reasonable." Of course the current whine and nonsensical assertion that the TSA "has never stopped a terrorist" is ludicrous and maintained by those unschooled in aviation security and intelligence and law enforcement tradecraft.  (Sort of like saying the NYPD has never stopped a burglary. Think about it.) Of course, you can't prove that the TSA never stopped an act that didn't happen...yet in a recent week TSA screeners discovered 32 loaded firearms that passengers "forgot" were in their hand luggage.  (As a Canadian Customs Officer once remarked to me, only somebody from the US would "forget" they had a weapon in their baggage or trunk of their vehicle.)

         These TSA screeners are doing their best to handle lots of people and make flight secure and safe.  Speaking of safety, with the nasty weather we're experiencing over the Twelve Days of Christmas, don't get too upset at your airline for canceling your flight or flights.  If you are traveling in the Northern USA in Winter you need to plan and be prepared for adverse weather....Fact of life:   Prudent and competent pilots know the limitations of their aircraft and themselves and do not fly in severe weather.  Of course, a big portion of this problem is the system of hubs and spokes resulting from airline deregulation and "consolidation" (mergers, less point to point flights and fewer choices --- and higher fares in many markets) that gets totally paralyzed by bad weather.  Just as is the case with TSA screening, your airline is having you endure delays or cancellations for safety reasons.

          Of course, if you'd like to travel without the screening hassle or the snow cancellations, I'd say take the train, like those of us in the Snow Belt used to do.  Unfortunately, we Americans created Amtrak and then have lost the political and economic will to make it more than a Third World system - when we need a system of systems as Germany, Italy, Japan and China have.  That is the subject of another blog entry. Stay tuned and Happy Yuletide and New Year.

World Doesn't Come to an End but Amtrak Service Inaugurated Between Norfolk and New York

      The World did not come to an end on December 12th as some thought the Maya Calendar foretold (or is it December 21st) but for the first time in some 40 years a passenger train ran from Norfolk to New York and vice versa.  Governor Bob McConnell of Virginia, a staunch conservative Republican has not been infected with the ideology that subsidies for rail passenger service are somehow contrary to free enterprise and the needs of the public and economy (while subsidies for highways, trucking, and airlines are somehow desirable) and has backed this service as well as a service between New York and Lynchburg and increased service between New York and Richmond and Newport News.  Shortly after it was inaugurated it became apparent that the Lynchburg service was covering more than the Commonwealth's investment in it.

      Governor McDonnell has been aided by a "can do" attitude on the part of  Norfolk Southern's CEO Wick Moorman and his leadership team.  Norfolk Southern understands that passenger trains running on a freight railroad that do not interfere with its freight traffic reflect highly on the railroad.  The author has been told by other railroad executives that the only thing keeping the nation's freight carriers from further partnerships with Amtrak with name trains that would sometimes but not always involve some profit for the freight carrier is the issue of liability and insurance coverage.  (The main reason Amtrak was founded was the withdrawal of the mail subsidy from the railroads and taxation and other poliucies on the part of state and local governments.) 

      This is good news for citizens of Virginia and the Middle Atlantic States as these trains make it easy for those who prefer not to drive (including soon-to-be senior citizens such as myself); business people; tourists; and the public as a whole to travel without having to deal with highway congestion or the walk up air fares charged by the so-called regional airlines that are outs-sourced spokes of the major carriers hubs.  (Cheapest Washington-Norfolk next day purchase round trip out in the morning and back in the evening on Orbitz for a round trip on a US Airways - on an outsourced "commuter" aircraft - is $405.   Amtrak's standard non-discounted fare is $108 round trip.  As of now same day round trip service from Washington involves a train to Newport News with a connecting bus across Hampton Roads in the morning but same seat service on the way back, with it being possible for patrons from Norfolk to Washington to have same day service.)  

     
        As North Carolina, like Virginia,  is one of the forward leaning states when it comes to train travel, it is anticipated that the two states will ink North Carolina Rail and Virginia's subsidized Amtrak services to create a rail corridor from New York and New England through Washington and Richmond and the Research Triangle all the way to Charlotte.  Currently there is one daytime round trip from New York to Charlotte,  The Carolinian.  Amtrak's Crescent  passes through North Carolina in the wee hours of the morning.   This service is a positive "back to the future" way to travel as seen at left on the former Southern Pacific's Golden State Limited.   (Photo Courtesy of Classic Trains magazine.)    Modern Amtrak coaches offer similar amenities - air travelers today can merely dream of such spacious and comfortable seating in Economy Class.   Below left is the type of seating found in the Amtrak cars assigned to the new Norfolk route, similar to the Golden State Limited.

         Unfortunately, if you read the comment thread on this link to The Pilot  you'll see that there are a fair number of ideologues who are strongly opposed to any taxes going to transportation infrastructure other than roads.   Part of this is due to the politicization of  of passenger rail investments as a result of the anti-Obama wave after the 2008 election when the right wing seized on high and higher speed rail as Obama-associated initiatives and in which we saw some rather irational anti-passenger rail rampages in Wisconsin and Ohio based purely on Tea Party type ideology. For detailed discussions on the merits of passenger trains the National Association of Railroad Passengers (NARP) has excellent material available on its web site at   http://www.narprail.org/   .



http://hamptonroads.com/2012/12/amtrak-launches-service-morning-norfolk

Aviation Security in the Skies of The Star of Bethlehem

     For those of us who have worked in or engaged in diplomacy for the region it has been a tense and frustrating year for the Middle East.  It certainly has not been the best year overall for Middle East airlines.  Tourism to Egypt isn't exactly making a come back.  With much of the "Arab Spring" turning into an Arab "Time of Troubles" and as we enter the Christmas Season this year and approach the New Year of 2013 the skies of the Star of Bethlehem and over the lands of the Children of Abraham...where Jesus was born and lived, the Prophet Mohammad recited and preached and the City of David and Solomon, are all, as they have been for decades the center of strife.  Syria is in the midst of a tragic Civil War; Israel is under siege; Shia and Sunni are at odds; the President of Egypt is being called a New Pharaoh and Iran is seeking a nuclear arsenal.  However, even with Damascus' Airport all but closed, and crowds demonstrating in Tahrir Square there are bright spots on the Arabian Peninsula - prosperous and growing airlines and prosperous and thriving cities. 
     Etihad, Emirates and Qatar Airways, to name the main ones, are now contenders. (I hope to see comments from executives from airlines such as Oman Air, Saudi, Jazzera etc. to remember them!)  They are strategically located with their hubs in Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai on the Arabian Peninsula and central to connections to and from Europe, Central Asia, Africa, South America and the Far East and Australia.  The cities and countries they fly from and are based in are almost literally oases of peace and commerce.  As in real estate, these airlines are doing well because of the location, location, location  of their bases.  Their networks can funnel passengers from all over Europe and the Mediterranean and Africa beyond the Gulf Region eastward and vice versa.   (On a recent trip to South America I was amazed to see throngs of Argentine passengers boarding an Emirates flight to Sao Paulo and beyond.) Generally, these airlines and their countries are safe - and secure.  (Emirates is even a leader in Aviation Security training.)
      This, however, does not mean that those charged with the security of air transport in the region can be complacent.  One thing is certain - geography is not a static factor.  The GCC states and their airlines as now being in the major league crossroads of air commerce, much as Europe became in the 1960's and 70's and 80's face a wider spectrum of challenges.  In addition to the dangerous factions lurking on the periphery of the Arabian Peninsula, sectarian strife, the Israeli-Palestinian situation, rumblings in Central Asia, Aviation Security  (AVSEC) professionals concerned with the area, whether they are in Doha, Riyadh, Chicago, Islamabad, Moscow, Delhi, Canberra or Frankfurt now have to be very concerned about cybersecurity, cybercrime and cyberterrorism based in Nigeria or Russia or New York.  I won't speculate on the cyber horrors that integrated Safety Management Systems (SMS) and Security Management Systems (SeMS) will have to deal with in the area of flight operations for fear of giving the bad guys food for thought. 
      One thing is for sure, 2013 will continue to be full of challenges. AVSEC professionals based in the region have hopefully considered the effect of geopolitical strife on aviation prosperity in their region and hopefully have crisis management and recovery plans in place integrated with their national military and civil defense contingencies.  Instead of Icelandic volcanoes those interested in "macro"  AVSEC in the region need to think about conflict and missiles in the Straits of Hormuz.  At the micro level they need to be concerned with the same passenger facilitation issues that our United States TSA does.   God bless and keep those men and women of good will and all faiths and nationalities who are doing their best to keep our skies and travels safe whether it is for Christian pilgrims visiting the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem; Catholics the Vatican or Fatima, Moslem hajis making the Haj to Mecca, or Haddasah Ladies from Great Neck visiting Israel.